Deloitte estimates that combustion sales have already peaked, and 31.1m EVs will be sold by the end of the decade
Deloitte has predicted that a third of all new cars sold globally will be electrified by the end of the decade, citing a radical shift in consumer sentiment.
The firm estimates that 31.1 million electrified vehicles will be sold per year y 2030 – ten million more than it forecasted in January 2019. The peak of petrol and diesel vehicle sales, it says, is likely to have occurred during the coronavirus pandemic.
Although it expects the global car market not to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024, electrified vehicle sales, it says, are predicted to reach 2.5 million in 2020. Applying a compound annual growth rate of 29%, this should increase to 11.2m in 2025 and 31.1m by 2030. By this point, pure-electric vehicles will account for some 81% of all new EVs sold.
Deloitte attributes the disparity between its 2019 forecast and this latest prediction to various factors driving growth and the gradual dissipation of obstacles that previously discouraged drivers from making the switch, among them the increasing affordability of mainstream EVs.
Jamie Hamilton, Deloitte’s head of electric vehicles, said: “The price premium attached to many electric vehicles restricted some early adopters but, as the cost of EVs have converged with petrol and diesel equivalents, the pool of prospective buyers is set to increase.
“A wider range of new electric vehicles, combined with a growing secondhand market, means EVs are becoming a more viable option for many.”
Additional factors encouraging EV adoption include various government-backed financial incentives, stricter emissions targets and a more comprehensive array of electric cars on the market, including SUVs, saloons, sports cars and superminis.
Despite this, the firm notes that would-be electric car buyers are still held back by comparatively low driving ranges and a perceived lack of charging infrastructure.
A Deloitte survey of UK drivers found that half would consider an EV as their next car, but that 33% cited the UK’s still-growing charging infrastructure as their biggest concern.